Which of the following is the tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs and our behaviors?

*Hindsight Bias - the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it.

Critical Thinking - thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. Rather it examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence and assesses conclusions.

Theory - an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events.

*Hypothesis - a testable prediction, often implied by a theory.

*Operational Definition - a statement of the procedures used to define research variables.

*Replication - repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances.

*Case Study - an observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles.

*Survey - a technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of people, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of them.

*False Consensus Effect - the tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs and behaviors.

Population - all the cases in a group, from which samples may be drawn for a study.

Random Sample - a sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion.

*Naturalistic Observation - observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation.

*Correlation - a measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus of how well either factor predicts the other.
CORRELATION DOESN'T PROVE CAUSATION! ^.^

Scatterplot - a graphed cluster of dots, each of which represents the values of two variables. The slope of the points suggests the direction of the relationship between the two variables. The amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation (little scatter indicates high correlation).

*Illusory Correlation - the perception of a relationship where none exists.

Experiment - a research method in which an investigator manipulates one or more factors to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process.

*Double-Blind Procedure - an experimental procedure in which both the research participant and the research staff are ignorant about whether the participants have received the treatment or the placebo.

*Placebo Effect - experimental results caused by expectations alone; any effect on behavior caused by the administration of an inert substance or condition, which is assumed to be an active agent.

*Experimental Condition - the condition of an experiment that exposes participants to the treatment, that is, to one version of the independent variable.

*Control Condition - the condition of an experiment that contrasts with the experimental condition and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment.

Random Assignment - assigning participants to experimental and control conditions by chance, thus minimizing preexisting differences between those assigned to the different groups.

*Independent Variable - the experimental factor that is manipulated; the variable whose effect is being studied.

*Dependent Variable - the outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable.

*Mode - the most frequently occurring score in a distribution.

*Mean - the arithmetic average of a distribution, obtained by adding the scores and then dividing by the number of scores.

*Median - the middle score in a distribution; half the scores are above it and half are below it.

*Range - the difference between the highest and lowest scores in a distribution.

*Standard Deviation - a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score.

*Statistical Significance - a statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance.

Culture - the enduring behaviors, ideas, attitudes, and traditions shared by a large group of people and transmitted from one generation to the next.

The tendency to overestimate how much other people agree with us is known among social psychologists as the false consensus effect. This kind of cognitive bias leads people to believe that their own values and ideas are "normal" and that the majority of people share these same opinions.

Let’s say Jim’s Facebook newsfeed is full of stories advocating a certain political position. Even though that feed is curated by Jim to include people he knows and is influenced by an algorithm based on Jim’s behavior, he may overestimate how many people agree with this position.

Why Does the False Consensus Effect Happen?

One of the possible causes of the false consensus effect involves what is known as the availability heuristic. When we are trying to estimate how common or likely something is, we tend to look at the examples that come to mind most readily.

If you are trying to determine if other people share your beliefs, you’ll probably think of people who are the most similar to you, like your family and friends, and it's very likely that they do share many things in common with you.

Researchers have suggested that there are three main reasons why false consensus occurs:

1. Our family and friends are more likely to be similar to us and share many of the same beliefs and behaviors.
2. Believing that other people think and act the same way we do can be beneficial to our self-esteem. In order to feel good about ourselves, we are motivated to think that other people are just like us.
3. We are the most familiar with our own attitudes and beliefs. Since these ideas are always at the forefront of our minds, we are more likely to notice when other people share similar attitudes.

Factors That Influence the False Consensus Effect

The false consensus effect tends to be stronger in certain situations. If we consider something really important or feel confident in our point of view, the degree of false consensus tends to be stronger; that is, we’re most likely to assume more people agree with us.

If you are very concerned about the environment, for example, you will probably be more likely to overestimate the number of people who are also very concerned about environmental issues.

The effect is also stronger in instances when we are very sure that our beliefs, opinions, or ideas are the correct ones. If you are absolutely 100% convinced that passing a certain law will reduce the amount of crime in your community, you are more likely to believe that the majority of other voters in your town will also support the passage of the law.

Finally, we are more likely to experience the false consensus effect in cases where situational factors play a major role. For example, imagine that you go to see a film, but you think the movie is terrible because the special effects are so poor. Since you assume that everyone else viewing the movie is sharing the same experience and forming the same opinions, you might mistakenly believe that all the other viewers will also share your belief that the movie is terrible.

Research on the False Consensus Effect

The false consensus effect was first named and described in the late 1970s by researcher Lee Ross and his colleagues.

In one experiment, the researchers had study participants read about a situation in which a conflict occurred, as well as two different ways of responding to the conflict. The participants were then asked to say which of the two options they would choose, guess which option other people would probably choose, and describe the type of people who would choose each of the two options.

The researchers discovered that no matter which of the options the participants selected, they also tended to believe that the majority of people would also select that option. The researchers also found that people tended to give more extreme descriptions of the characteristics of people who would choose the alternate options.

Verywell Mind uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read our editorial process to learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.

1. Butler J, Giuliano P, Guiso L. Trust, values and false consensus. International Economic Review. 2015;56(3):889-915. doi:10.1111/iere.12125

2. Baddeley M. Herding, social influences and behavioural bias in scientific research. EMBO Rep. 2015;16(8):902-905. doi:10.15252/embr.201540637

3. Leviston Z, Walker I, Morwinski S. Your opinion on climate change might not be as common as you think. Nature Climate Change. 2013;3(4):334-337. doi:10.1038/nclimate1743

4. Morrison KR, Matthes J. Socially motivated projection: Need to belong increases perceived opinion consensus on important issues. European Journal of Social Psychology. 2011;41(6):707-719. doi:10.1002/ejsp.797

5. Ross L, Greene D, House P. The "false consensus effect": An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology. 1977;13(3):279-301. doi:10.1016/0022-1031(77)90049-X

By Kendra Cherry
Kendra Cherry, MS, is an author and educational consultant focused on helping students learn about psychology.

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