What are the common types of qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques?
Quantitative forecasting requires hard data and number crunching, while qualitative forecasting relies more on educated estimates and expert opinions. Using a combination of both of these methods to estimate your sales, revenues, production and expenses will help you create more accurate plans to guide your business. Show
Quantitative Forecasting TechniquesQuantitative forecasts often use historical data, such as previous sales and revenue figures, production and financial reports and website traffic statistics. Looking at seasonal sales data, for example, can help you plan next year’s production and labor needs based on last year’s monthly or quarterly figures. Quantitative forecasting also uses projections based on statistical modeling, trend analyses or other information from expert sources such as government agencies, trade associations and academic institutions. Qualitative Forecasting TechniquesQualitative forecasting techniques come from the experience and instincts of seasoned business experts. These forecasting techniques aren’t just guesses; they include interpretation of data combined with the professional expertise you've developed over time on the job. For example, if you want qualitative information for projecting sales for the year, you might estimate the impact of a new ad campaign or promotion your company is planning, look at the effects that new technologies might have on consumer purchasing and take into account recent social fads and trends. You might forecast demand by holding focus groups of customers to discuss and gauge their reactions to several new product features your company is considering. Forecasting for SalesQuantitative forecasting techniques for sales include looking at census data for a geographic area, reviewing historical seasonal sales reports and reviewing sales reports to see which products are maturing and showing recent slowdowns in sales and which products have recently begun selling at higher volumes. Qualitative forecasting techniques include asking your sales reps for their projected sales for the coming year, asking customers about their upcoming product needs and asking distributors what other products are selling well or poorly. Forecasting for Cash FlowCash flow forecasting is important for your business because it helps you project when you will receive money and when you will have bills to pay, rather than recording income by the date of a customer order or payables using a monthly average. Quantitative forecasting techniques for projecting cash flow can include looking at last year’s bank deposits and checks or credit card payments. You can look at last year’s payables reports or invoices to examine when customers were supposed to pay and when they actually did; this helps you create a cushion for planning on income. Qualitative methods for planning cash flow include asking your salespeople to project their sales for the year by month or asking your distributors if they foresee any upcoming slowdowns or buying increases during certain times of the year. Qualitative forecasting techniques are based on human judgment. It revolves around the knowledge of customer journey, market research, experts’ opinion, or senior industry leaders’ experience in the field. It is more subjective, intuitive, and experiential than other forecasting techniques. Read ahead to learn more about the most common qualitative techniques used in businesses. In our previous post – ‘fundamentals of business forecasting’, we talked about two types of forecasting techniques, i.e., qualitative, and quantitative. Here, we elaborate on the types, applications, and limitations of qualitative forecasting techniques. Businesses employ various qualitative forecasting techniques, individually or in combination, to generate better strategies and direct business tasks such as production, demand planning, marketing, and sales. Types of qualitative forecasting techniquesQualitative forecasting techniques are subjective, intuitive, and experiential where the industry experts apply their business knowledge and experience. The commonly used qualitative forecasting techniques are Delphi, Market research, Panel consensus, and Visionary forecast. Qualitative forecasting techniquesDelphi Technique:The main objective of the Delphi technique is to construct consensus forecasts from a group in a structured manner. The technique involves a repeated cycle of questionnaires presented to a panel of select experts. The independent answers provided by the expert team are then forwarded to the facilitator to analyze and summarize the opinions. Highlights of Delphi methodA few of the highlights of this method include
Steps involved in the Delphi techniqueIt is a simple technique, typically involving the following steps:
These repeated rounds of questionnaires allow a consensus to be reached. A visual representation of the Delphi methodWhen to use the Delphi technique?Delphi technique is recommended when the problem at hand needs collective and subjective decisions. It can be used to:
Limitations of Delphi methodDelphi is time-consuming and laborious for both facilitators and experts. It may lead to loss of consistency or distraction between rounds as it demands long-term and continuous commitment. Market ResearchMarket research is a popular qualitative forecasting method used in business. It forecasts future demand through consumer surveys and questionnaires. Businesses apply this technique to gain valuable insights from consumers when, for example, introducing a new product into the market. It differs from the Delphi technique because public opinions are considered here to glean insights, and not just those of experts. Market research methodologies also change according to evolving market challenges. Highlights of market research methodSome of the highlights of market research are that it
Steps involved in market researchThe typical steps involved in market research are:
When to conduct market research?When business professionals need to estimate the size of the market, define potential customers, understand the reasons behind low sales or low profitability, or support company growth. Market research helps to understand customers’ pain points, target future markets, control inventory for low-volume products, and forecast margins. Limitations of market research methodThe results of Market research may not be always accurate because the consumers’ behaviors are uncertain. Additionally, this methodology demands extensive research, and qualified & experienced specialists, both of which require significant time and money to obtain. Panel consensus methodPanel consensus is a qualitative forecasting technique that brings all the internal experts of an organization together for an open discussion about a product or service. Anyone may speak up, and the meeting will end when a consensus is reached. The accuracy of the forecast is ex post facto verified against actual sales data. It is also known by other terminologies such as forecasting averaging, model averaging, ensemble averaging, or expert aggregation. This method differs from Delphi or market research in involving only the experts internal to the organization. Highlights of panel consensus
Steps involved in consensus forecastingThe process typically involves
When to use the Panel consensus method?Panel consensus process can be undertaken periodically for a set of narrowly defined variables. The forecast acts as an estimator of risk or ‘less likely’ scenarios. It can be used for
Limitations of panel consensus methodThe drawback of this method is that it relies on experience and personal opinion. It may lead to bias in the final forecasts as this is a ‘top-down’ method. The cost is high, and it cannot be used granularly for each product, but can be used to forecast an overall demand. Visionary forecastingIn contrast to using group think, visionary forecasting is usually based on the individual opinion or judgement of an experienced and respected individual in the field. In this method, a set of future scenarios is usually determined by the “visionary” based on past events. It is therefore based on subjective guesswork and somewhat non-scientific. Highlights of visionary forecastVisionary forecasting is characterized by “vision” of the expert being consulted. It incorporates intuitive judgment, opinions, and subjective probability estimates. The company’s senior professionals are encouraged to predict new product development by observing past events and developments. Steps involved in visionary forecastingVisionary forecasting is a fairly straightforward process that typically involves
When to use visionary forecast?The visionary forecasting technique is best used when there is a lack of historical data. It is used to estimate new trends in new and unique market conditions. Limitations of visionary forecastAn individual’s judgment may lead to confirmation bias. A decision-maker may seek evidence that only validates their beliefs while ignoring the evidence that support differing conclusions. Combining qualitative forecasting techniquesIt should be evident by now that no forecasting technique is appropriate for every industry or situation. Studies suggest that combining the individual forecast methodologies brings more accuracy and acts as a compensatory mechanism to overcome the deficiency in any particular technique. Choosing complementary methods eliminates the shortcomings of one technique by substituting it with the advantages of another. ConclusionQualitative forecasting techniques help organizations to reduce ambiguity in data, predict changes in sales patterns, and customer behaviors. It gives the team required flexibility when using soft data. Qualitative forecasting techniques, individually or in combination, enables organizations to analyze the current scenario, recognize changing trends in the market, and to connect that information to potential future strategies. What are qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques?In general, qualitative forecasting is based on subjective opinions and insights, whereas quantitative forecasting is more focused on using historical demand data in statistical calculations to predict the future.
What are the types of quantitative forecasting techniques?What are the different quantitative forecasting techniques?. Naive forecasting. ... . Run rate. ... . Straight-line method or historical growth rate method. ... . Trend projection: Graphical method. ... . Moving average method. ... . Weighted moving average. ... . Simple linear regression. ... . Multiple linear regression.. What are the common techniques used for forecasting?There are three basic types—qualitative techniques, time series analysis and projection, and causal models.
What are the types of qualitative forecasting?Here are a few examples of qualitative forecasting methods:. Delphi method. The Delphi method involves questioning a panel of experts individually to collect their opinions. ... . Jury of executive opinion. ... . Market research. ... . Consumer surveys. ... . Sales force polling.. |